My opponent will attempt to prove to you that war is inevitable if two strong military powers exist. However, the pin that holds his argument together is the word inevitable. All I need do is prove that two strong military powers existed, escalated in power, but did not go to war. I will be giving these examples to support that war is not inevitable.
- Neutral Countries
- The cold war between U.S. & Russia
- Globalization creates Peace
- Logic and history show this not to be true
First, we have Sweden who gained its reputation for neutrality during World War II. Surrounded by Military powers and war between them Sweden stayed neutral, and war was not inevitable for them. [Cr1A] Quite the opposite, Sweden military has time and time again entered hostile areas, not engaged in war, and garnered peace. (the opposite of a Thucydides Trap) And let me be very clear the Swiss have a military, and they could enter war, but choose not to.
2) Neutral Countries
While Sweden’s neutrality is the most impressive many countries have stayed neutral when surrounded by war. Austria, Ireland, Finland, Malta, Turkey, Vatican City, etc were all neutral during WWII, but if you fast forward to today the number of neutral countries is even larger. Even going so far that 22 countries don’t even have a military. [Cr1E]
3) The cold war between U.S. and Russia
The two biggest military powers in the world have ever known escalated in military and economic strength for years without war. The best example of how close you can come to war and it still not be inevitable is the Cuban missile crises. On Sept. 26, 1983 Stanislav Petrov decided that the U.S. launch reports were probably a false alarm and averted a nuclear war. He received a reprimand, but war was not inevitable. (and the cold war lasted 45 years)
4) Globalization creates Peace
As we move toward globalization it has the opposite of effect and it’s becoming more and more difficult for aggressive countries to function. “An increase in global trade openness would reduce the probability of military conflict as it leads to an increase in bilateral trade interdependence.” So as trade, commerce, and tourism increase between countries it becomes less and less in their best interest to start a war.
5) Logic and history show this not to be true
I have mentioned many countries that have resisted the trap, and I have even shown how countries are progressing toward more peace and less war in general. But we need do nothing but look at history and you can see that military conflict has continues to decline even though neighboring countries have militaries. “Examining armed conflict empirically over a decades-long perspective, we find that it has decreased — interstate war has become a rare event, and intrastate conflict has lessened in frequency and magnitude, despite a recent uptick in violence.” If logic is applied with globalization in mind, the obvious conclusion is that we are headed for peace.
The war between Athens and Sparta was just as preventable as any other war. The isolation of that time allowed the leaders to believe there was no other option, but that’s simply not the case. Lacking the ability to see a peaceful outcome doesn’t mean one does not exist. As I have shown countries like Sweden and Switzerland stayed neutral surrounded by enemies, so it is possible. Other countries have taken of the neutrality banner as well and our world progresses toward peace even if still hit speed bumps like Trump who escalate rather than deescalate the situation. As I have shown with Petrov event if we are on the brink of war we can still come back from the edge, proving there is no line at which war becomes inevitable.
It’s easy to get into the slippery slope fallacy mindset, but just like two bullies puffing out their chests and trying to intimidate each other, much of what goes on is nothing more than posturing for their audience. We have pasted the stage in history where people like Alexander the Great, Julius Caesar, or Genghis Khan can attempt to concur the world, without the world uniting against them. We now have checks and balances in place that deter countries from open conflict between each other. I have shown not only that wars aren’t inviable they are declining even as their respective firepower increases.
I found that Free links B, C, D and F are removing the ":" out of the link string so I only used A and E. If you have problems with the free links I'll post those links in the comments. Also the editor covers the submit button so you need to click outside of the box to be able to click submit. (just more issues that need to be fixed)